There are few that will truly ever master the game of poker, but for all of those who try; one essential tool that is definitely required is being able to work out and understand pot odds.
So on this particular topic - I was thinking…that who better than a bunch of lads like us to at least take a look and see what we can come up with in understanding this important part of our game
Indeed my friends, with the bar in poker set as high as it is and with so many people in search of answers… let’s see how high we can leap in trying to decode this crucial part of the game!
Right, now it’s true that many people have different views regarding Pot Odds and rightly so…as there are many ways of looking at it, so with that in mind, we’ll try not to make it too complicated and keep it simple.
First of all – I know that many of you sharks already know this but for those of you who don’t and who might only be new to the game; the main jest with Pot Odds is calculating the amount that you need to put in to the middle / pot, in order to win the amount that’s already in there.
However, as is often the case with poker, it is no where near as simple as that; as there are literally dozens of other things that one must also factor in!
One of which is you must determine how many cards / outs are remaining in the deck - that you can hit - that will help you make / define your hand and then by dividing that number of outs by the total amount of money which is in the pot, you can then see if you are getting the correct odds (which aides you with your decision at that time on whether or not you should call).
A bit confusing I know, so here is an easy example:
Let’s just say that only you and one other person see a flop and with $75 in the pot, your opponent bets only $25 making it a total of $100, so it’s going to cost you $25 if you want to call / continue with the hand. So this means you are getting 4/1 on your money if you decide to call, ($25 to win $100) Ok, fairly straight forward.
Now lets just say in this same example you have an up-and-down straight draw or as we like to say “you’re open-ended”, you basically then have eight cards that you can hit to make a straight, guaranteeing you a win providing there is no pair or flush on the board.
So at this moment you know five of the cards – the 3 on the flop and the 2 in your hand and from 52 cards in the deck that leaves you with 47. So basically out of the 47 cards remaining 8 are going to make your straight.
Next you divide your 8 outs into 47 which is almost 6/1 (5.875 if you want to be precise) but remember you have 8 outs twice… as you are going to get 2 shots at hitting one of your 8 outs (the turn and the river). So the price you’re actually getting or as they say, your pot odds are almost 3/1 - for those of you who love your attention to detail, that works out at 2.90625 to 1 to be exact. Because if you miss on the turn you are now drawing from only 46 cards on the river unlike 47 on the turn which changes the percentages slightly.
Anyway, so with $25 to win $100 = 4/1 and with your chances of making your straight being 3/1, you are easily getting the right odds and a call is probably in the beckoning.
Again…as you can see this is a fairly simply example, but where it starts to get interesting is when you begin to factor in many of the other important details, like chip stacks, how accurate is your read on this bloke, how have you been running against this guy and also you might want to put some thought into the projected odds factor as well. Projected odds mean how much more you can win in addition to what’s already in the pot should you hit your card and make your hand.
Granted…all this has been said before, there’s nothing new really, but one thing I can tell you that is rarely mentioned…is the next time you are about ready to call someone based solely on the fact that you are getting the right odds is consider before you put your money in that you should probably assume that you are not going to see those chips again!
What…what are you talking about Ciaran?
The point and case my fellow fanatics is that when using our 3/1 example, that means that 3 out of 4 times you are not going to hit your card and therefore you are going to lose the hand and those chips. So…no shame in letting one slide now and again and not always assuming that the call is always the correct play. Because… I believe it isn’t.
Remember as I’ve said before every situation is different and no two players are the same, if it happens to be that you are in a $50 freezeout and you’re a 3/1 dog and you don’t really care if you get knocked out or not, then by all means go for it. Or if you happen to have a huge chip lead and you have a chance to take out a dangerous player …then why not - go for it. But if it’s the case that you are at the final table in a big event with a nice pay day at stake then you might not want to gamble and take that 3/1 shot. Wait for a better spot as you really need all the chips you have and therefore you stay clear of that old mentality that many share, believing that if you are getting the right odds then you must always call.
Fascinating isn’t it - I suppose what it comes down to is this - like anything else there’s an argument for both sides, but with me I often like to get a lot more than just the right odds because unfortunately the maths and the odds don’t always break even at a time when you want them to the most. You may win the time you are in the $50 freezeout but lose the time you are playing for a huge title as the cards, the maths and the odds have no way of knowing the importance of one tournament over the other and obviously can’t determine which is the more important event to you
all they do in the long run…is break even.
All we did here is scratch the surface and it helps keep us thinking about things as there are so many bits and pieces to banter about regarding this topic so we’ll tackle it again soon.
You tell me – what do you think my friends?
Ciaran