PokerImplied odds. Warning! May contain traces of maths!
When stack size affects your decisions by Tom Murphy
Most players understand basic odds. If you are in the big blind and the blinds are 3000/6000 and the small blind goes all-in for a total of 7000... it doesn't matter what you are holding, you simply have to call. You are getting 13,000 back for your 1,000 extra. In poker parlance, you are being laid 13:1 pot odds and even if your opponent has AK, you are only 3:1 behind him in terms of winning the hand. I wrote an article recently on this very topic called "How could you call that?!".
Implied odds are subtly different. Have you ever played offline where one player asked another how many chips they had left ? Not, how many chips they had bet but how many they kept in reserve. Ever wondered exactly why they might ask that? Well, one obvious reason is to find out if they have more than you or not, ie can they put you out of the tournament or bring that sort of pressure to bear. But another reason is to find out how much you could win if you do manage to hit your card and clean your opponent out!
Lets look at an example (this is the science bit, concentrate!):
You have KQ of clubs. The board reads 789A with 2 clubs including the ace. The pot is 10,000 and your opponent goes all in for 4,000. You put him on a straight or a strong ace. Either way he has you beaten. Now, what are the odds of filling a flush with one card to come? There are 46 cards you cant see, and 9 of them are clubs so the odds are 9:46 which is just shy of 1-in-5. So, it looks like an easy fold.... You are getting 14,000 back for 4000 stake. If you play this hand 5 times, 4 times you'll lose 4,000 (which totals to -16,000) and once you'll profit 14,000, giving a net loss of 2000 over 5 hands. So, its close but it's a losing bet and if you take it every time you find yourself in that situation, you will theoretically lose 2000 every 5 times you do it (or a net loss of 400 every time you call.)
So where do implied odds come in? Well, let's replay that example but let's give your opponent 24,000 in chips when he puts in his 4,000 bet. If you feel your opponent will bet or call for a chunk of his chips even if a club comes , then you should call. Let's say that he'll call or bet up to 6,000 even if the river comes up clubs. So, 4 times you'll call 4,000 and lose... you drop the hand as you are clearly behind and shouldn't put another chip in the pot. But the one time you DO hit a club you profit the 14,000 PLUS the 6,000 you figure he'll pay you off. That's a gross profit of 20,000 making the overall play profitable long term (4000 every 5 times you play it or an average profit of 800 a time).
I'm terrifically discombobulated Ted!! What the hell does all that mean? How in God's name can the same call be wrong with short stacks and right when the stacks are large? Those chips weren't even in the pot so how could they affect the odds??
The simple fact is that once that river card comes down you know exactly where you are. You either have a powerful hand or a load of muck. In the cases where you have muck, you drop it, costing you nothing more. But the occasions you hit you your opponent may not realise he's losing and might call your bet on the river. Particularly if he doesn't understand implied odds and may well think you couldn't possibly have a flush draw because the pot-odds wouldn't support the call!
Oh what a tangled web we weave!!